Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Rebeka Masarova and Mary Stoiana in the Birmingham, originally scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rebeka Masarova' if Rebeka Masarova advances against Mary Stoiana. This market will resolve to 'Mary Stoiana' if Mary Stoiana advances against Rebeka Masarova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Match O/U 21.5 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 63% YES | 37% NO |
| Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Set 1 Winner | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Rebeka Masarova and Mary Stoiana are scheduled to meet in the first round of the Birmingham tournament on 5 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Masarova's advancement at 67%, reflecting a modest but clear favourite status. Settlement occurs by 12 June, with a seven-day buffer for scheduling delays before the market resolves to 50-50 if no winner emerges.
Masarova, a Swiss player ranked in the mid-200s, has competed regularly on the WTA circuit with mixed results on grass courts. Stoiana, a Romanian player of similar ranking, has limited recent tournament history at this level. Historical precedent suggests that when two players of comparable ranking meet on grass—a surface that can amplify serve-based advantages—the favourite typically wins 65–70% of the time, consistent with the current implied probability. Recent grass-court tournaments have shown that unseeded players in opening rounds advance roughly two-thirds of the time when priced as slight favourites.
Traders should monitor the official Birmingham tournament draw confirmation and any late withdrawals or injury announcements, which would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Weather conditions in the week preceding 5 June could affect scheduling; the UK's June climate occasionally forces delays. Court surface conditions and practice reports from the week before the match may shift the probability if either player shows unexpected form or fitness concerns. The settlement window's tight seven-day window means any significant delay risks automatic 50-50 resolution regardless of eventual outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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