Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves Team Falcons' main CS2 roster (defined as players listed with status = "Starter" in the "Players of Team Falcons" table on HLTV: https://www.hltv.org/team/11283/falcons#tab-rosterBox) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active starter roster consists of the following five players: NiKo, m0NESY, kyousuke, kyxsan, and TeSeS. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Team Falcons make a roster move before July? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Team Falcons' competitive Counter-Strike 2 roster will experience at least one personnel change—either a player departure or arrival—between now and 30 June 2026. The current five-player lineup comprises NiKo, m0NESY, kyousuke, kyxsan, and TeSeS. The market settles affirmatively if any of these starters depart or any new player joins with starter status on HLTV's roster table; cosmetic name changes do not trigger resolution.
The 100% implied probability reflects structural realities of professional esports rosters over an eighteen-month window. Top-tier CS2 teams rarely maintain identical five-player lineups across such timeframes due to performance fluctuations, contract expirations, and organisational restructuring. Historical precedent shows that even dominant squads experience turnover: rosters typically see at least one change annually, whether through player buyouts, mutual releases, or strategic acquisitions. The extended settlement window substantially increases the likelihood of detecting any roster adjustment.
Traders should monitor team performance at major tournaments through 2025 and early 2026, particularly results at Intel Extreme Masters and ESL Pro League events, which often precede roster decisions. Contract renewal cycles typically occur around mid-year, creating natural decision points for organisations. Recent reporting from HLTV and esports news outlets will signal any official announcements regarding player departures or signings. Injury or visa complications could also force unexpected roster changes. The market's current pricing suggests traders assess the probability of roster stability as negligible across this duration.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Team Falcons make a roster move before July?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$279 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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