Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves Astralis's main CS2 roster (defined as players listed with status = "Starter" in the "Players of Astralis" table on HLTV: https://www.hltv.org/team/6665/astralis#tab-rosterBox) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active starter roster consists of the following five players: HooXi, phzy, jabbi, Staehr, and ryu. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Astralis make a roster change before July? | 51% YES | 49% NO |
Astralis's competitive CS2 roster—currently comprising HooXi, phzy, jabbi, Staehr, and ryu—faces a six-month window during which any addition or departure of a starter-level player would trigger a Yes resolution. The market currently prices this event at 52% implied probability, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether the Danish organisation will pursue roster adjustments before the July 2026 deadline.
Astralis has historically maintained roster stability during mid-year periods, though the team has undergone significant changes in recent years. The organisation's approach to roster construction has shifted following competitive underperformance, with previous cycles showing willingness to make moves when Major qualification or ranking targets appear at risk. Comparable organisations in the top tier typically execute roster changes either immediately post-event (following Major tournaments or significant LAN results) or during defined off-season windows. The current 52% probability on Polymarket's order book suggests traders view the likelihood of change as roughly even, neither heavily discounting stability nor pricing in imminent moves.
Key catalysts include Astralis's performance at upcoming international tournaments through early 2026, particularly any Major qualifiers or ranking-dependent events that might prompt strategic evaluation. Announcements regarding coaching staff, sponsorship changes, or competitive restructuring could signal broader roster intentions. Contract expiration dates for individual players, though not publicly detailed, typically cluster around standard esports calendar points. Monitoring HLTV's roster tracking and official Astralis communications remains essential, as formal announcements precede market-moving information by hours rather than days in professional CS2.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.hltv.org/team/6665/astralis#tab-rosterBox. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Astralis make a roster change before July?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $22 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 51%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.hltv.org/team/6665/astralis#tab-rosterBox. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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