Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Alexander Volkov" if Alexander Volkov is officially declared the winner of the fight against Waldo Cortes-Acosta at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026. It will resolve to "Waldo Cortes-Acosta" if Waldo Cortes-Acosta is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Volkov to win by KO/TKO? | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Cortes-Acosta to win by KO/TKO? | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| Fight won by submission? | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 78% YES | 22% NO |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 69% YES | 32% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 67% YES | 33% NO |
| Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 61% YES | 40% NO |
Alexander Volkanovski, the Russian heavyweight contender, faces Waldo Cortes-Acosta on the main card of UFC 328 on 9 May 2026. Volkanovski brings significantly more experience at elite level, having competed regularly against top-ranked opposition in the heavyweight division. Cortes-Acosta represents a less established challenger, though the specific matchup dynamics—reach, wrestling credentials, striking patterns—will determine the technical probabilities. The current Polymarket order book implies a 28% probability for Volkanovski, suggesting the market prices Cortes-Acosta as the favoured outcome.
Volkanovski's recent record and performance trajectory provide the primary historical reference point. Heavyweights with comparable experience levels and ranking positions have typically carried higher win probabilities when facing lesser-known opponents, though heavyweight bouts carry inherent variance due to knockout power and submission vulnerability. The 28% probability sits below what historical precedent might suggest for a fighter of Volkanovski's profile, indicating either market concern about specific stylistic matchups or underestimation of Cortes-Acosta's capabilities.
Traders should monitor official UFC announcements regarding fighter health and any late changes to the card between now and the 9 May event date. Weight-cut complications, injury disclosures, or opponent changes would materially shift the probability. The settlement window extends to 23 May, providing buffer for any post-fight scoring disputes or technical rulings. Current liquidity on Polymarket's order book will determine execution costs for position adjustments as new information emerges.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/events. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$238K in lifetime turnover and $263K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $169K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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