Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Süper Lig game, scheduled for Saturday, May 16, 2026 between Samsunspor and Göztepe SK.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Samsunspor | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Draw (Samsunspor vs. Göztepe SK) | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Göztepe SK | 30% YES | 70% NO |
Samsunspor will host Göztepe SK in a Süper Lig fixture on Saturday, 16 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 43% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders view this as a competitive match with meaningful uncertainty around the result. The spread between bid and ask prices indicates moderate liquidity, typical for Turkish top-flight fixtures scheduled several months ahead.
Historical form between these sides provides limited predictive power given the volatility of Turkish football and squad turnover across seasons. Samsunspor has experienced fluctuating league positions in recent campaigns, whilst Göztepe has similarly shown inconsistent results. Comparable fixtures in the Süper Lig at this stage of the season typically settle around 40–50% for home sides, reflecting that advantage without overwhelming dominance. The 43% mark sits within this range, suggesting the market is pricing Samsunspor's home status as a modest but not decisive factor.
Traders should monitor squad news, injury announcements, and managerial changes in the weeks before the fixture. Late-season form divergence—particularly if either side enters a relegation battle or secures European qualification early—could shift probabilities materially. Fixture congestion in May, including potential cup commitments, may affect team selection and intensity. Any significant personnel moves or tactical shifts reported by Turkish sports media outlets in April and early May will likely trigger order book repricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://tff.org/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Samsunspor vs. Göztepe SK" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$23 in lifetime turnover and $231K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://tff.org/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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