Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Süper Lig game between Kocaelispor and Fatih Karagümrük SK, scheduled for May 9, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Kocaelispor | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Fatih Karagümrük SK | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Kocaelispor will host Fatih Karagümrük SK in a Süper Lig fixture on 9 May 2026, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for the home win at halftime, suggesting traders are pricing in either a draw or away victory as substantially more likely outcomes in the opening period.
Turkish Süper Lig halftime markets historically show that home advantage carries meaningful weight in early-game dynamics, though the strength of that advantage varies considerably by fixture quality and team form. Kocaelispor's home record and Fatih Karagümrük's defensive setup in away matches will be critical reference points; teams with strong defensive discipline often suppress halftime home leads. The current zero probability for a home halftime win is notably extreme and warrants examination of whether it reflects genuine tactical expectations or liquidity constraints on the order book.
Traders should monitor team news and lineup confirmations released in the days before kickoff, particularly injury status for key attacking or defensive personnel. Fatih Karagümrük's recent form and approach to away fixtures—whether they adopt a compact defensive shape or press higher—will directly influence halftime scoring patterns. Weather conditions on match day and any late tactical adjustments announced by either manager could shift the probability distribution, though the settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on 9 May, allowing limited time for such updates to affect pricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://tff.org/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Kocaelispor vs. Fatih Karagümrük SK - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$348 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://tff.org/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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