Trade: Fenerbahçe SK vs. Samsunspor - More Markets
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the TFF Super Kupa game, scheduled for June 1 at 1:30 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5) | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Samsunspor (-1.5) | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5) | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Samsunspor (-2.5) | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 61% YES | 39% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
Market context
Fenerbahçe and Samsunspor will contest the TFF Super Kupa on 1 June 2026 at 13:30 ET. This single-match cup final determines the Turkish football season's opening silverware, traditionally held between the previous season's league champions and cup winners. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 44% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting moderate uncertainty among traders pricing the broader market cluster around this fixture.
Fenerbahçe enters as one of Turkish football's dominant sides, having won the Süper Lig multiple times in recent seasons, whilst Samsunspor represents a mid-table competitor with inconsistent recent form. Historical Super Kupa results show favourites—particularly Istanbul's "big three"—convert their league pedigree into cup success roughly 65–70% of the time. The current 44% probability reflects either meaningful respect for Samsunspor's potential upset capability or genuine uncertainty about squad composition and injury status heading into the June fixture.
Traders should monitor team news releases through May, particularly regarding injury confirmations and any late-season domestic league developments that might affect squad rotation or morale. Fenerbahçe's Champions League involvement (should they qualify) could influence preparation intensity. Samsunspor's final league position and any managerial changes will also shape perceived competitive balance. The settlement window closes at 17:30 ET on match day, allowing only pre-kickoff information to influence final pricing.
Wikipedia Context
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Fenerbahçe S.K.Fenerbahçe Spor Kulübü, commonly known as Fenerbahçe or colloquially Fener, is a Turkish professional multi-sport club based in Istanbul, Turkey. Fenerbahçe is parent to a number of different competitive departments including football, basketball, volleyball, table tennis, athletics, swimming, sailing, boxing, rowing, and eSports, which have won both interna
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Fenerbahçe S.K. (football)
Fenerbahçe Spor Kulübü, commonly known simply as Fenerbahçe, or colloquially as Fener is the football branch of Fenerbahçe Sports Club association, based in Istanbul, Turkey. The team compete in the Süper Lig, the top division of Turkish football. Founded in 1907, Fenerbahçe is one of Turkey's most successful and widely supported clubs, boasting a record 28
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Fenerbahçe S.K. (basketball)Fenerbahçe Basketball, commonly referred as Fenerbahçe or Fenerbahce Istanbul in European matches, currently also known as Fenerbahçe Beko for sponsorship reasons, is a professional basketball team and the men's basketball department of Fenerbahçe S.K., a major Turkish multi-sport club based in Kadıköy, Istanbul, Turkey. They are one of the most successful c
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The Intercontinental Derby (football)The Intercontinental Derby is any football match between rivals Fenerbahçe SK and Galatasaray SK. The fixture is widely regarded as the biggest football match in Turkey because of the success both clubs have had in Turkish football, the intensity of the matches, and the immense rivalry between the two teams. The fixture has been in existence for more than a
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://tff.org/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Fenerbahçe SK vs. Samsunspor - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://tff.org/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Fenerbahçe SK vs. Samsunspor - More Markets"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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