Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Serie A game, scheduled for May 10 at 2:45 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AC Milan (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Atalanta BC (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| AC Milan (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Atalanta BC (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
AC Milan and Atalanta BC are scheduled to meet in Serie A on 10 May 2026 at 14:45 ET. This fixture represents a mid-table encounter in the Italian top flight, with both clubs historically competing for European qualification spots. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either minimal liquidity in this particular market or a structural absence of YES positions at current spreads, a common pattern for niche sports derivatives with limited trading activity.
Historical context suggests that markets on individual Serie A fixtures typically develop deeper order books as match day approaches, particularly when major outcomes—wins, draws, losses—carry financial consequences for league standings or European qualification. Comparable fixtures between mid-tier Italian clubs have shown that probability discovery accelerates in the final 72 hours before kick-off, as traders incorporate team news, injury reports, and tactical adjustments. The current zero reading should be interpreted as a liquidity signal rather than a definitive market consensus.
Key catalysts for traders include official team news from both clubs, confirmation of squad availability, and any late fixture rescheduling announcements from the Lega Serie A. Weather conditions and pitch status at the venue may also influence trading activity closer to the settlement window. Monitoring official Serie A communications and club social channels will provide early signals of lineup changes or logistical shifts that could shift the probability distribution across the order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.legaseriea.it/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$340K in lifetime turnover and $911K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $339K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.legaseriea.it/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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