Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Serie A game, scheduled for May 17 at 9:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Atalanta BC (-1.5) | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5) | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Atalanta BC (-2.5) | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5) | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 94% YES | 6% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 82% YES | 19% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 36% YES | 64% NO |
Atalanta and Bologna will meet on 17 May in a Serie A fixture scheduled for 09:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing the "More Markets" outcome at 36% implied probability, reflecting trader positioning ahead of the settlement window closing at 13:00 UTC that same day.
Atalanta finished the 2023–24 season in third place and has consistently challenged for European qualification, whilst Bologna secured a Champions League spot last term despite being considered outsiders. Historical matchups between these sides show competitive encounters; Atalanta holds a slight edge in recent head-to-head records, though Bologna's defensive organisation has often limited the visitors' attacking output. The current 36% probability suggests traders view this as a moderately unlikely outcome relative to baseline expectations, though the specific market definition ("More Markets") will determine settlement criteria—typically referring to whether additional betting markets open for the match.
Traders should monitor team news and injury updates in the final weeks before 17 May, particularly regarding key attacking and defensive personnel. Serie A scheduling and any fixture congestion affecting either side in the preceding weeks could influence squad rotation decisions. Polymarket's order book depth will likely tighten as the match approaches, and any significant line movement should be tracked against broader Serie A market sentiment and bookmaker consensus. The settlement window's tight closure at match kickoff means late information flow will be minimal.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.legaseriea.it/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909 - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.legaseriea.it/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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