Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Scottish Premiership game between Motherwell FC and Celtic FC, scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Motherwell FC | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| Draw | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Celtic FC | 43% YES | 57% NO |
Motherwell FC will host Celtic FC on 13 May 2026 in a Scottish Premiership fixture, with traders currently pricing a 23% probability that Celtic leads at the interval. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on match day, roughly four hours after kick-off. This halftime result market isolates the first 45 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any second-half momentum or tactical adjustments.
Celtic's historical dominance in Scottish football provides context for reading the current odds. Over the past decade, Celtic has won approximately 65% of fixtures against Motherwell, with halftime leads in roughly 58% of those matches. Motherwell's home record against Celtic shows marginal improvement—they've held draws or leads at the break in around 18–22% of encounters at Fir Park. The 23% YES probability on Polymarket's order book reflects this asymmetry but sits slightly above Motherwell's long-term halftime performance baseline, suggesting modest confidence in a competitive opening period.
Traders should monitor team news through early May, particularly injury updates affecting Celtic's attacking depth and Motherwell's defensive stability. Recent Scottish Premiership form will influence opening-half intensity; if either side enters the fixture chasing European qualification or managing fixture congestion, tactical caution in the first half could suppress scoring. Weather conditions at Fir Park on match day—wind and pitch state—may favour direct play or possession-based approaches. The order book's current pricing reflects these uncertainties, with liquidity likely to shift as match day approaches and late team confirmations emerge.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://spfl.co.uk/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Motherwell FC vs. Celtic FC - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$29 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://spfl.co.uk/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: