Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Peru Liga 1 game, scheduled for May 23 at 6:15 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cusco FC (-1.5) | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| CA Grau (-1.5) | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| Cusco FC (-2.5) | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| CA Grau (-2.5) | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 60% YES | 40% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
Cusco FC will face CA Grau in Peru's Liga 1 on 23 May at 6:15 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 35% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in moderate conviction around additional market depth or settlement conditions tied to this fixture. The settlement window closes at 22:15 UTC on match day, allowing roughly four hours post-kick-off for resolution criteria to be met.
Historical context for Peru Liga 1 matches shows considerable volatility in pre-match pricing, particularly for mid-table fixtures involving clubs outside Lima's traditional powerhouses. Cusco FC competes at altitude (3,400 metres), a factor that historically influences both team performance and market expectations. Comparable Liga 1 encounters between similarly-ranked sides have seen implied probabilities shift 10–15 percentage points in the 48 hours before kick-off as team news and injury updates surface. The current 35% reading sits near the lower quartile for such fixtures, indicating the market is currently sceptical of the specified outcome.
Traders should monitor official Liga 1 fixture confirmations and any squad announcements from either club in the days preceding the match. Polymarket's order book depth will likely increase as the fixture approaches; current liquidity constraints may be artificially suppressing or elevating the probability. Weather conditions at Cusco's elevation and any late-breaking injury disclosures could trigger repricing. The tight settlement window means resolution will depend on precise match-day documentation rather than extended post-match review periods.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://liga1.pe/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Cusco FC vs. CA Grau - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://liga1.pe/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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