Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Peru Liga 1 game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between CD Moquegua and AD Tarma.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (CD Moquegua vs. AD Tarma) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| CD Moquegua | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| AD Tarma | 0% YES | 100% NO |
CD Moquegua will host AD Tarma in Peru's Liga 1 on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The current orderbook on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating that traders are pricing this fixture with near-total certainty of a particular outcome. This extreme probability typically emerges when one side of the market has accumulated substantial backing or when liquidity has dried up on the opposing side, leaving the spread wide.
Peruvian Liga 1 matches between lower-ranked clubs often exhibit volatile odds early in the week, particularly when team news or injury updates surface. Historical precedent suggests that matches involving Moquegua and Tarma—both mid-table or lower-division competitors—have seen significant probability shifts once lineups are confirmed or weather conditions affecting the high-altitude Moquegua venue become apparent. The 100% reading here warrants scrutiny: such extremes typically resolve only when one outcome becomes administratively certain (fixture cancellation, team withdrawal) rather than through sporting uncertainty alone.
Traders should monitor official ADFP (Peruvian Football Federation) communications through early May for any fixture postponements, venue changes, or team eligibility issues. Recent Peruvian football news cycles have included occasional last-minute scheduling adjustments due to security or infrastructure concerns. Settlement occurs at 18:00 UTC on match day; any administrative cancellation or rescheduling would trigger settlement rules specific to the market's terms. The absence of meaningful counter-liquidity at current odds suggests limited conviction on either side among active traders.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://liga1.pe/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CD Moquegua vs. AD Tarma" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://liga1.pe/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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