Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Norway Eliteserien game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between Tromsø IL and Molde FK.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tromsø IL | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (Tromsø IL vs. Molde FK) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Molde FK | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Tromsø IL will host Molde FK in the Norwegian Eliteserien on Sunday, 10 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating that traders are pricing this fixture as a certainty to occur. This extreme probability typically emerges when settlement conditions are straightforward and no material uncertainty exists around the match's scheduling or cancellation.
Historically, Eliteserien fixtures carry minimal cancellation risk once scheduled within the final weeks of a season. Norwegian football's weather conditions and pitch maintenance standards are well-established, and both clubs have strong institutional capacity to field teams. The 100% pricing aligns with comparable late-season domestic league matches across Northern European football, where regulatory frameworks and club infrastructure make non-occurrence exceptionally rare. Previous Tromsø and Molde fixtures have settled without incident, establishing a baseline of reliability.
Traders should monitor official Eliteserien communications for any fixture rescheduling, though such announcements are uncommon this close to match day. Injury or suspension announcements affecting either squad's availability would not alter settlement but could influence secondary markets. Weather forecasts for Tromsø in early May are relevant context, though severe conditions rarely force postponement in the Norwegian top division. The settlement window closes at 15:00 UTC on match day, providing a tight window for any last-minute developments. Current liquidity and order depth on Polymarket will determine execution costs for traders seeking to adjust positions before closure.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.eliteserien.no/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Tromsø IL vs. Molde FK" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.eliteserien.no/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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