Trade: Golden Knights vs. Ducks
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for May 14 at 9:30PM ET: If the Golden Knights win, the market will resolve to "Golden Knights". If the Ducks win, the market will resolve to "Ducks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $8K
- Total Volume
- $37
- 24h Volume
- $37
- Open Interest
- $37
Market outcomes
| Golden Knights vs. Ducks | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 6.5 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| O/U 7.5 | 47% YES | 54% NO |
Market context
The Vegas Golden Knights face the Anaheim Ducks in an NHL matchup scheduled for 14 May at 9:30PM ET, with settlement occurring shortly after the game concludes on 15 May. The market currently reflects a 54% implied probability favouring the Golden Knights, as formed through Polymarket's order book activity. This probability incorporates the teams' regular-season performance, recent form, and playoff positioning where applicable.
Historical matchups between these franchises show competitive parity, though Vegas has generally held the upper hand in head-to-head records over recent seasons. The 54% probability sits within a typical range for home-ice advantage scenarios in NHL markets, suggesting traders are pricing in standard factors such as travel fatigue, roster availability, and venue effects. Comparable games at similar playoff stages have settled with probabilities in the 50–60% range for favoured teams, indicating the current pricing reflects conventional expectations rather than extreme sentiment.
Key variables for traders to monitor include roster announcements and injury reports released in the 24 hours preceding the match. Goaltender availability, particularly any late-game confirmations, has historically shifted implied probabilities by 3–5 percentage points in NHL markets. Weather conditions affecting travel to the venue and any schedule adjustments should also be tracked. The settlement window closes at 01:30 UTC on 15 May, allowing minimal time for post-game disputes; traders should confirm final scoring details through official NHL sources immediately upon game conclusion.
Wikipedia Context
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Golden Knights (chess)
The Golden Knights is the United States open correspondence chess championship. It is held annually by the United States Chess Federation (USCF), and is open to all members of the USCF residing in the United States or who have an APO or FPO address. It was first held in 1943 under the name Victory Tournament, the next year it was called the Postal Chess Cham
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Knights PlazaKnights Plaza at University of Central Florida, commonly referred to as Knights Plaza, is an athletic village and shopping center on the main campus of the University of Central Florida in Orlando, Florida, United States. The plaza consists of housing for more than 2,000 students in four towers, 183,000 square feet (17,000 m2) of commercial space, the 10,000
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Golden nightjarThe golden nightjar is a species of nightjar in the family Caprimulgidae. It is found in Sahel region in northern Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Golden Knight GaroGolden Knight Garo is a PlayStation 2 video game based on the tokusatsu TV show Garo. It was published by Bandai and released in Japan on April 20, 2006.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.nhl.com/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Golden Knights vs. Ducks" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$37 in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $37 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.nhl.com/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Golden Knights vs. Ducks"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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