Trade: NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthony Davis of the Washington Wizards is traded to another NBA team by the start of the first game of the 2026-27 NBA regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Anthony Davis is cut, waived, retires, or is otherwise not moved to another roster via trade by October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No” The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA and/or Washington Wizards, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $526
- Total Volume
- $85
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $45
Market outcomes
| NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season? | 39% YES | 62% NO |
Market context
Anthony Davis, currently with the Washington Wizards, may or may not be traded before the 2026-27 NBA season begins in October 2026. The market is pricing a 39% probability of a trade occurring within the next eighteen months, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the franchise's direction and Davis's long-term fit in Washington. This settlement window extends well beyond the typical trade deadline, capturing both mid-season and off-season transaction possibilities.
Historical precedent suggests star players in their prime rarely remain with struggling franchises for extended periods. When the Wizards acquired Davis in 2022, the move signalled a commitment to building around him alongside Bradley Beal. However, the team's inconsistent performance and front office instability have created conditions where a trade becomes plausible. Comparable situations—such as James Harden's departure from Houston or Anthony Davis's own earlier trade from New Orleans—demonstrate that even substantial investments can be reconsidered within two-year windows if competitive trajectories diverge sharply from expectations.
Traders should monitor several catalysts through the settlement period: the Wizards' win-loss record and playoff positioning heading into the 2025-26 season, any public statements from ownership regarding roster direction, and potential coaching or general management changes. The 2025 trade deadline in February represents a critical juncture where contending teams may pursue Davis if Washington appears unlikely to compete. Contract details and salary-cap flexibility across the league will also influence whether acquiring teams can construct viable offers. Recent reporting on the Wizards' strategic plans remains sparse, leaving the current order-book probability to reflect baseline uncertainty rather than concrete directional signals.
Wikipedia Context
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N. Anthony Coles
Neavelle Anthony Coles is an American physician and biotechnology executive. He has served as chairman of the board of directors of Cerevel Therapeutics, a company focused on neurological disease treatments, since 2018, and was its chief executive officer from 2019 to 2023.
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Anthony Sean NealAnthony Sean Neal is an American philosophy professor and author. In 2021, Neal was awarded the title Beverly B. and Gordon W. Gulmon Dean's Eminent Scholar. Neal is an author and professor of philosophy at Mississippi State University. Neal is a Fellow of the American Institute of Philosophical and Cultural Thought. Neal is also an American Philosophical As
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Anthony NewAnthony New was an American politician and lawyer from Virginia and Kentucky.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 39% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $256 if YES resolves true — a 156% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$85 in lifetime turnover and $526 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 39%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 October 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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