Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the next team Giannis Antetokounmpo officially joins by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Giannis Antetokounmpo does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Milwaukee Bucks”. If Giannis Antetokounmpo joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If Giannis Antetokounmpo retires or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. An official acquisition announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Chicago Bulls | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| Houston Rockets | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Indiana Pacers | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| San Antonio Spurs | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Utah Jazz | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Washington Wizards | 10% YES | 90% NO |
Giannis Antetokounmpo remains under contract with the Milwaukee Bucks through the 2025–26 season, with a player option for 2026–27. The market settles on whether he joins a different franchise by 31 October 2026. The 2% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the low likelihood of a mid-contract departure within the specified timeframe, given Antetokounmpo's long-term commitment to Milwaukee and the substantial financial and competitive considerations that would need to shift dramatically for a trade or free agency move.
Historical precedent suggests that superstar-level players rarely force exits from competitive situations during active contracts. LeBron James's 2010 departure from Cleveland occurred in free agency after his contract expired, whilst Kawhi Leonard's 2018 trade request from San Antonio took months of negotiation. Antetokounmpo signed a three-year, $186 million extension with Milwaukee in December 2023, signalling stability. The Bucks' 2024–25 roster construction, including the Damian Lillard acquisition, was designed to retain him through the resolution window.
Traders should monitor the Bucks' playoff performance and any public statements from Antetokounmpo or his representatives regarding satisfaction with the franchise trajectory. The NBA trade deadline in February 2026 and the 2026 off-season represent critical junctures where circumstances could shift. Recent reporting from ESPN and The Athletic has emphasised Milwaukee's commitment to competing, though injuries or sustained underperformance could theoretically alter the landscape before October 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NBA: Giannis Antetokounmpo Next Team" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $51 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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