Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for May 9 at 9:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| NRFI | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| O/U 8.5 | 40% YES | 61% NO |
The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to San Francisco on 9 May for an evening matchup against the Giants, with first pitch at 9:05 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 51% implied probability for a Pirates victory, suggesting near-parity in market expectations. This tight pricing indicates traders perceive minimal structural advantage between the two clubs for this specific contest.
Historical matchups between these franchises show the Giants have held a slight edge in recent seasons, though the Pirates have demonstrated competitive capability in divisional play. The 51% probability sits close to the baseline expectation for a road team in MLB, where visiting clubs typically face a 3–5 percentage-point disadvantage. The market's current positioning suggests traders are pricing in the Pirates' away status whilst accounting for San Francisco's home-field context without assigning substantial weight to either team's recent form or roster composition.
Key variables affecting settlement include starting pitcher assignments and any late roster moves announced before game time. Injury reports, particularly involving position players or relief arms, can shift the order book meaningfully in the days preceding the fixture. Weather conditions at Oracle Park—wind direction and temperature affecting ball carry—may influence trader positioning closer to first pitch. The settlement window extends to 17 May 2026, allowing for postponement scenarios, though the straightforward resolution criteria (Pirates win, Giants win, or 50-50 for cancellation) leaves minimal ambiguity once the game concludes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$74K in lifetime turnover and $493K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $74K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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