Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for May 7 at 3:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| NRFI | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| O/U 9.5 | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| O/U 8.5 | 53% YES | 48% NO |
The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks on 7 May 2026 in an afternoon matchup. The 48% implied probability for a Pirates victory reflects a near-even matchup, with slight favour toward the home side.
Historical performance between these franchises provides context for evaluating the current odds. Over their recent seasons, the Pirates have struggled relative to the Diamondbacks, who have maintained stronger win rates and playoff contention. The Pirates' record against National League West opponents typically runs below .500, whilst Arizona has shown competitive strength at home. The current probability of 48% for Pittsburgh suggests the market is pricing in the Diamondbacks' structural advantages—home-field benefit, recent form, and roster composition—whilst acknowledging the Pirates' capacity to compete on any given day.
Key variables for traders include starting pitcher matchups, which significantly influence game outcomes in May when teams are still establishing rhythm. Recent injury reports for both rosters warrant monitoring, particularly regarding position players in the Pirates' lineup and Arizona's bullpen depth. Weather conditions in Phoenix during early May typically favour higher-scoring games, which could influence betting patterns. The settlement window extends to 14 May, allowing for potential postponements due to weather or other factors. Traders should track any roster moves or managerial decisions announced in the days preceding the fixture, as these can shift competitive balance meaningfully.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$101K in lifetime turnover and $414K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $100K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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