Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Milwaukee Brewers, scheduled for May 10 at 2:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| NRFI | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| O/U 8.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | — | |
| O/U 7.5 | — | |
The New York Yankees face the Milwaukee Brewers in an MLB regular-season matchup on 10 May at 2:10 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 48% implied probability for a Yankees victory, suggesting near-parity between the two sides with a slight lean towards Milwaukee. This probability emerges from real-time trading activity as participants price in available information about roster composition, recent form, and pitching matchups.
Historical matchups between these franchises show competitive balance, though the Yankees' larger payroll and stronger recent playoff appearances have historically favoured them in market pricing. The 48% probability sits notably lower than pre-season expectations for a Yankees win, indicating that either Milwaukee's current form or specific game-day factors—such as starting pitcher assignment or injury status—have shifted trader sentiment. The settlement window extends to 17 May, allowing for postponements common in early-season baseball.
Key catalysts for traders include confirmation of starting pitchers, which typically arrives 24–48 hours before first pitch, and any late-breaking injury announcements affecting either roster. Weather conditions at the scheduled venue may also influence trading, particularly given early May's variable conditions in the Midwest. Recent performance metrics, including each team's record against comparable opponents and bullpen availability, will inform marginal adjustments to the order book as game time approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$222K in lifetime turnover and $481K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $222K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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