Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Minnesota Twins and Washington Nationals, scheduled for May 7 at 1:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| NRFI | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| O/U 9.5 | 55% YES | 45% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| O/U 8.5 | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| O/U 10.5 | 45% YES | 56% NO |
The Minnesota Twins face the Washington Nationals in an MLB regular-season matchup on 7 May at 1:05 PM ET. The 75% implied probability favours the Twins, reflecting their stronger recent performance and roster composition relative to the Nationals. This settlement window extends to 14 May, allowing for potential postponements common in early-season baseball.
Historical context shows the Twins have maintained a competitive edge over the Nationals in recent seasons. Minnesota's divisional strength within the AL Central typically translates to higher win probabilities against non-division rivals, particularly those from weaker conferences. The Nationals, rebuilding after their 2019 World Series window, have consistently underperformed relative to established contenders. Win-probability models for matchups of this calibre typically range between 60–75% for the favoured team, placing current market pricing within expected bounds for a team with the Twins' recent trajectory.
Traders should monitor roster availability in the days preceding the fixture. Injury reports for key pitchers—particularly the Twins' starting rotation—carry material weight given the compressed timeframe between announcement and game time. Weather conditions at the venue may also influence game dynamics, though postponement risk remains low for May fixtures. Recent form divergence matters considerably; if either team experiences unexpected roster changes or managerial adjustments in the lead-up period, the probability could shift meaningfully. The official MLB injury report and team announcements through 6 May represent the primary information sources for material developments.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$518K in lifetime turnover and $541K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $516K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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