Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for May 17 at 12:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| NRFI | 50% YES | 50% NO |
The Miami Marlins travel to Tampa Bay for a day game against the Rays on 17 May at 12:15 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 42% implied probability for a Marlins victory, suggesting the Rays are favoured as hosts. This probability formation occurs in the context of both teams' early-season performance and the specific matchup dynamics at hand.
Historically, the Rays have maintained a competitive edge in divisional play, though the Marlins have shown inconsistency that makes them vulnerable in road contests. The 42% probability sits within the range typical for visiting teams facing established home-field advantage, particularly when the home side possesses stronger recent form. Comparable matchups between these clubs over the past two seasons show the Rays winning approximately 55–60% of games played in Tampa, which aligns reasonably with current market pricing.
Key variables for traders to monitor include starting pitcher assignments, which typically drive significant probability shifts in the 48 hours before first pitch. Recent roster moves or injury reports affecting either team's lineup could alter the order book substantially. Weather conditions at Tropicana Field—whilst indoor—remain a minor factor given the day-game timing. The settlement window extends to 24 May, providing traders with a five-day window to adjust positions as new information emerges regarding team availability and performance trends heading into the fixture.
Below is a partial list of minor league baseball players in the Miami Marlins system:
The following is a list of players, both past and current, who appeared at least in one game for the Miami Marlins franchise, known as the Florida Marlins from their inception in 1993 through the 2011 season.
The Miami Marlins were a minor league baseball team based in Miami, Florida. The original Marlins were a Triple-A franchise in the International League from 1956 through 1960. The International League team was succeeded by a Single-A team in the Florida State League and today's Miami Marlins of Major League Baseball.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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