Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals, scheduled for May 10 at 7:20PM ET: This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers win the game. This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| NRFI | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| O/U 8.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
The Detroit Tigers face the Kansas City Royals on 10 May at 7:20 PM ET in an American League Central matchup. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 48% implied probability for a Tigers victory, suggesting near-parity in market expectations. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity as participants price in available information about both teams' current form, roster status, and pitching matchups.
The Tigers and Royals have historically occupied different competitive tiers within the division, though recent seasons have narrowed the gap. Detroit's performance trajectory and Kansas City's rebuilding phase provide context for understanding how the market has settled on near-even odds. When division rivals meet mid-season, the probability typically reflects both teams' win-loss records, run differential, and strength of schedule rather than historical dominance. The 48% figure suggests traders view this as a competitive fixture without a clear favourite.
Key variables for traders monitoring this market include starting pitcher announcements, which typically arrive 24–48 hours before game time, and any roster moves or injury updates affecting either team's lineup. Weather conditions at Kauffman Stadium can influence outcomes, particularly regarding wind direction and temperature affecting ball carry. The settlement window extends to 17 May, providing a buffer for potential postponements, though the market will remain open if the game is rescheduled. Recent MLB injury reports and team performance metrics through early May will refine the probability as game day approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$69K in lifetime turnover and $162K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $69K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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