Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Morocco Botola Pro game, scheduled for Monday, May 4, 2026 between HUS Agadir and OC Safi.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| HUS Agadir | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (HUS Agadir vs. OC Safi) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| OC Safi | 0% YES | 100% NO |
HUS Agadir will face OC Safi in a Morocco Botola Pro fixture on Monday, 4 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for the YES outcome, indicating that traders are pricing in either an exceptionally lopsided expectation or minimal liquidity depth at the current price levels. This extreme probability warrants scrutiny, as Botola Pro matches—Morocco's top domestic league—typically feature competitive fixtures where upsets and draws occur with meaningful frequency.
Historical context suggests that 100% implied probabilities in football markets are rare and often signal either a data error, settlement ambiguity, or genuine information asymmetry. Comparable Botola Pro matches over recent seasons have shown that even favoured sides face genuine uncertainty; draws account for roughly 25–30% of outcomes in the league, and away-side victories occur in approximately 20–25% of fixtures. HUS Agadir's home advantage and relative league standing would normally support a strong favourite position, but not one approaching certainty.
Traders should monitor team news, injury reports, and any fixture postponements or rescheduling announcements in the days preceding 4 May. Recent Botola Pro coverage via outlets such as Moroccan sports press and official league communications may reveal squad availability or tactical shifts. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC on match day, leaving minimal time for late-breaking developments to be priced in. Liquidity conditions on the order book will likely tighten as the fixture approaches, potentially creating arbitrage opportunities if the probability recalibrates toward more typical football match distributions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.frmf.ma/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "HUS Agadir vs. OC Safi" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$632 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.frmf.ma/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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