Trade: LDU de Quito vs. CA Lanús - Exact Score
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Copa Libertadores game between LDU de Quito and CA Lanús, scheduled for May 20, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the LDU de Quito vs. CA Lanús match originally scheduled for May 20, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
Market context
LDU de Quito will face CA Lanús in a Copa Libertadores group-stage match on 20 May 2026 at 8:30 PM ET. The market prices the probability of an exact-score outcome at 49% YES, reflecting the current order book on Polymarket where traders are pricing the likelihood that the final whistle produces one of the explicitly listed scorelines rather than any other result. Given that typical football matches generate roughly 20–30 distinct plausible final scores across all possibilities, an exact-score market typically settles YES only when one of the pre-selected outcomes materialises, making the 49% probability a meaningful indicator of how fragmented trader expectations are around the specific scorelines offered.
Historical Copa Libertadores group-stage matches between Ecuadorian and Argentine clubs show variable scoring patterns; LDU de Quito's home record in continental competition tends toward lower-scoring affairs, whilst Lanús has demonstrated defensive solidity in recent seasons. The 49% probability suggests the order book is pricing meaningful uncertainty about whether any single scoreline will dominate, rather than confidence in a particular outcome. Matches between these sides have historically settled across a range from 0–0 to 2–1 results, with 1–1 and 1–0 outcomes appearing with moderate frequency.
Traders should monitor team news regarding injuries to key attacking players and any late fixture changes; Lanús' recent form in the Argentine Primera División and LDU's domestic commitments in the weeks preceding the match will influence squad rotation decisions. Weather conditions in Quito, which sits at 2,850 metres elevation, may affect pace and fatigue patterns that influence final scorelines.
Wikipedia Context
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LDU QuitoLiga Deportiva Universitaria, commonly known as Liga de Quito or LDU Quito is an Ecuadorian professional football club based in Quito. They play in the Serie A, the highest level of the Ecuadorian professional football league. They play their home games at the Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, more commonly referred to as Casa Blanca. Rival clubs include Quito-ba
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Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://conmebollibertadores.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "LDU de Quito vs. CA Lanús - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://conmebollibertadores.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "LDU de Quito vs. CA Lanús - Exact Score"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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