Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season. If the listed club is officially relegated by La Liga following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 La Liga season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from La Liga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Espanyol | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Oviedo | 94% YES | 6% NO |
| Getafe | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Osasuna | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Alavés | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Valencia | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| Sevilla | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| Mallorca | 14% YES | 86% NO |
Three clubs will be relegated from La Liga at the end of the 2025–26 season, dropping to the Segunda División. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing individual club relegation outcomes, with the crowd-implied probability at 5% YES for this particular market contract. This reflects relatively low conviction that the specified club will finish in the bottom three of the 42-match league table.
Historically, La Liga relegation outcomes have been difficult to predict with certainty until the final weeks of the season. Clubs with strong financial backing or established squads have occasionally recovered from mid-table struggles, whilst newly promoted sides have faced immediate relegation. The 2024–25 season saw Getafe, Almería and Real Valladolid fighting relegation positions deep into spring, demonstrating how competitive the bottom half remains. A 5% implied probability suggests the market views the specified club as either mid-table secure or already showing clear signs of distress relative to relegation-form peers.
Traders should monitor managerial changes, January transfer window activity and injury updates to key players, as these typically shift relegation odds materially. Recent reporting from Marca and AS has highlighted financial pressures at several clubs, which may constrain squad depth through the campaign. Fixture congestion in spring—particularly around European competition for higher-placed sides—can create opportunities for struggling clubs to gain ground. The settlement window closes 30 May 2026, allowing resolution once La Liga officially confirms final standings.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "LALIGA: Which Clubs Get Relegated?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$37K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 9 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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