Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming J2 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between Reilac Shiga and Kagoshima United FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Reilac Shiga | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (Reilac Shiga vs. Kagoshima United FC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kagoshima United FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Reilac Shiga will face Kagoshima United FC in a J2 League fixture on 10 May 2026, with settlement contingent on the match outcome by 05:00 UTC that day. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing this event at 100% implied probability, reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or illiquidity in the market depth—a distinction worth examining before committing capital.
J2 League matches between mid-table and lower-ranked sides historically exhibit volatility in pre-match pricing, particularly when one club carries stronger recent form or fixture advantage. Comparable May-period J2 fixtures in prior seasons have seen probability shifts of 15–25 percentage points in the final 72 hours before kickoff, driven by team news and lineup confirmations. The 100% reading here suggests either the market has priced in a heavily favoured outcome based on current standings and head-to-head record, or that order book depth is thin enough that modest trading interest has moved the price to an extreme.
Traders should monitor official J2 League announcements regarding squad availability, injury updates, and any fixture rescheduling through early May. Weather forecasts for Shiga or Kagoshima on match day and any mid-week cup or playoff commitments affecting squad rotation will influence actual match dynamics. The settlement window closes at 05:00 UTC on 10 May, allowing minimal post-match arbitrage; confirmation of final score and official league records will determine settlement within hours of full-time.
Reilac Shiga , formerly MIO Biwako Shiga , with "Biwako" being a reference to Lake Biwa, is a professional Japanese football club based in Hikone, Shiga Prefecture. They are set to play in the third-tier J3 League from the 2026–27 season, after promotion from the Japan Football League in 2025.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Reilac Shiga vs. Kagoshima United FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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