Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the J2 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for May 24 at 1:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Montedio Yamagata (-1.5) | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Shōnan Bellmāre (-1.5) | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| Montedio Yamagata (-2.5) | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| Shōnan Bellmāre (-2.5) | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 41% YES | 59% NO |
Montedio Yamagata will face Shōnan Bellmāre in the J2 League on 24 May 2026, with the match scheduled for 1:00 AM ET. This fixture falls within Japan's second-tier professional football division, the J2 100 Year Vision League, which operates under the Japan Football Association's competitive structure. The settlement window for related derivative markets closes at 05:00 UTC on the same date, allowing approximately four hours post-match for final resolution.
The 43% implied probability currently reflected in Polymarket's order book suggests traders view the underlying event as moderately likely but not consensus. J2 League matches typically attract modest liquidity on prediction markets relative to top-tier J1 fixtures, meaning the current probability may shift meaningfully with modest order flow. Historical precedent shows that mid-season J2 fixtures between mid-table sides often settle with tight margins, and both clubs' recent form and injury status materially influence match outcomes. Yamagata and Bellmāre have occupied varying positions in the J2 standings across recent seasons, with neither consistently dominant.
Traders should monitor official team news releases and J2 League communications for late squad announcements, particularly regarding key player availability. Weather conditions in Yamagata prefecture on match day may also influence play style and scoring patterns. The compressed settlement window—closing just hours after kick-off—means real-time match data will be critical for final price discovery. Current order book depth will determine execution costs for positions entered ahead of the fixture.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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