Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming J1 100 Year Vision League game between Vissel Kōbe and Fagiano Okayama, scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Vissel Kōbe vs. Fagiano Okayama match originally scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Vissel Kōbe will face Fagiano Okayama in a J1 League fixture on 10 May 2026. The market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with any result not explicitly listed resolving to "Any Other Score." The 0% implied probability across Polymarket's order book reflects the typical pricing structure for exact-score markets in football, where the combinatorial nature of possible outcomes distributes liquidity thinly across dozens of potential results. Most exact-score markets in established football leagues show similar fragmentation, with no single outcome commanding meaningful probability mass until closer to match day when information crystallises.
Historical precedent from J1 League fixtures suggests Vissel Kōbe, as a stronger side, would be favoured in head-to-head matchups. Recent seasons show Kōbe finishing consistently in the upper half of the table, whilst Okayama typically competes in mid-table or lower positions. This asymmetry usually produces scorelines favouring the higher-ranked side, though exact scores remain inherently difficult to predict. The 0% reading likely reflects the market's current state of minimal trading activity rather than genuine impossibility of any outcome.
Traders should monitor team news, injury reports, and fixture congestion in the weeks preceding 10 May. Okayama's recent form and any managerial changes would influence expected goal-scoring patterns. The settlement window closes at 05:00 UTC on match day, allowing only pre-match trading; liquidity typically increases substantially in the final 48 hours before kick-off as traders position ahead of the event.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Vissel Kōbe vs. Fagiano Okayama - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$859 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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