Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming J1 100 Year Vision League game between Kashiwa Reysol and JEF United Ichihara Chiba, scheduled for May 23, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba match originally scheduled for May 23, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 3-0 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-3 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-2 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-3 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-2 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-3 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score | 49% YES | 52% NO |
Kashiwa Reysol will face JEF United Ichihara Chiba on 23 May 2026 in a J1 League fixture. The market prices specific final scorelines from this 90-minute match, with the current order book implying a 49% probability that the result matches one of the explicitly listed outcomes rather than resolving to "Any Other Score." Settlement occurs immediately after the final whistle, with no consideration of extra time or penalties.
The 49% YES probability reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting exact scores in professional football. Historically, exact-score markets across European leagues show that roughly 40–55% of matches produce scorelines outside the most commonly listed outcomes, particularly when markets include only the ten to fifteen most probable results. The Kashiwa–JEF United fixture carries additional uncertainty given that both clubs operate in Japan's top division with variable attacking and defensive profiles; recent J1 seasons have seen increasing tactical diversity, making scoreline clustering less predictable than in more standardised leagues.
Traders should monitor team news and injury updates in the weeks preceding the match, as absences of key forwards or defensive players materially shift scoring likelihood. JEF United's recent form and Kashiwa's home-ground advantage at Kashiwanoha Stadium will influence market repricing. Weather conditions on match day—rainfall in the Chiba region can suppress goal totals—may trigger late order-book movement. Any official postponement would keep the market open pending rescheduling, so fixture confirmation closer to the settlement window remains a dependency.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $507 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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