Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Ondrej Horak and Adrian Oetzbach in the ITF Men Troisdorf, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 6:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ondrej Horak' if Ondrej Horak advances against Adrian Oetzbach. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Oetzbach' if Adrian Oetzbach advances against Ondrej Horak. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Troisdorf: Ondrej Horak vs Adrian Oetzbach | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Ondrej Horak and Adrian Oetzbach are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's Troisdorf tournament on 27 May 2026. The market currently reflects a 0% implied probability for Horak's victory across Polymarket's order book, suggesting either extremely thin liquidity or a consensus view that Oetzbach is heavily favoured. With settlement occurring on 3 June 2026, traders have roughly one week from the scheduled match date to observe the outcome, though the resolution framework includes provisions for delays or incomplete matches that would trigger a 50-50 split.
ITF Futures events at this tier typically feature volatile matchups between players ranked outside the ATP top 500, where historical data on head-to-head records is sparse and recent form carries disproportionate weight. The current zero probability likely reflects either an absence of backing orders for Horak or a market consensus based on recent tournament results, ranking differentials, or surface preference data. Without recent news coverage of either player's preparation or injury status, the probability appears to be a function of static pre-tournament positioning rather than dynamic information.
Traders should monitor ITF tournament draws and player announcements through late May, particularly any withdrawal notices or schedule changes that might affect match timing. Surface conditions at Troisdorf and last-minute form updates—typically published within 48 hours of play—could shift the probability substantially if either player shows unexpected fitness issues or recent match results diverge from expectations. The seven-day delay threshold means matches postponed beyond 3 June would resolve to 50-50, creating a secondary settlement risk distinct from the match outcome itself.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Troisdorf: Ondrej Horak vs Adrian Oetzbach" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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