Sports

Trade: How many MLB home runs on Monday?

Opened 1 June 2026 · Settles 1 June 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of MLB home runs scored on June 1 2026. Any home runs scored durring a game which begins during June 1 ET will count regardless of the time the home run is scored.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: $0
Total Volume: $357
24h Volume: $357
Open Interest: $355

Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

0-2	0% YES	100% NO
6-8	0% YES	100% NO
9+	100% YES	0% NO
3-5	0% YES	100% NO

Market context

On 1 June 2026, MLB will host regular-season games across North America. This market settles based on the total number of home runs hit during any game that begins on that date in Eastern Time, regardless of when the final out is recorded. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability, reflecting either minimal trading activity or a genuine absence of YES positions at any price level.

Historical home run production in MLB averages roughly 1.2 to 1.4 per game across the league, meaning a typical day with 15 games would generate 18–21 home runs. The 0% probability reading appears disconnected from baseline expectations; comparable markets on daily MLB statistics typically show meaningful probability mass when settlement windows approach. This disconnect suggests either thin liquidity on the order book or traders pricing in an unusual constraint—such as a labour dispute, weather cancellation, or scheduling anomaly for that specific date.

The key catalyst is the MLB schedule release and any labour negotiations affecting the 2026 season. As of late 2024, the league and players' union operate under a collective bargaining agreement running through 2026, though renewal talks will occur before June. Weather forecasts closer to the date may also affect game cancellations. Traders should monitor whether 1 June 2026 falls during a normal regular-season window or coincides with any All-Star break or playoff disruption that could materially reduce games played.

Wikipedia Context

The Many Loves of Dobie Gillis
The Many Loves of Dobie Gillis is an American sitcom starring Dwayne Hickman that aired on CBS from September 29, 1959, to June 5, 1963. The series was adapted from the Dobie Gillis short stories written by Max Shulman since 1945 and first collected in 1951 under the same title as the subsequent TV series, which drew directly on the stories in some scripts.
Many-minds interpretation
The many-minds interpretation of quantum mechanics extends the many-worlds interpretation by proposing that the distinction between worlds should be made at the level of the mind of an individual observer. The concept was first introduced in 1970 by H. Dieter Zeh as a variant of the Hugh Everett interpretation in connection with quantum decoherence, and late
Many Men (Wish Death)
"Many Men (Wish Death)" is a song by American rapper 50 Cent from his debut studio album Get Rich or Die Tryin' (2003). The song was produced by Darrell "Digga" Branch, Eminem and Luis Resto. Despite the song charting and having a music video, it was only released as a promotional single.
Many-banded krait
The many-banded krait, also known as the Taiwanese krait or the Chinese krait, is an extremely venomous species of elapid snake found in much of central and southern China and Southeast Asia. The species was first described by the scientist Edward Blyth in 1861. Averaging 1 to 1.5 m in length, it is a black or bluish-black snake with many white bands across

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "How many MLB home runs on Monday?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$357 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $357 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "How many MLB home runs on Monday?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

View live odds & trade →

Related prediction markets

Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: