Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Ligue 1 game between FC Nantes and Toulouse FC, scheduled for May 17, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC match originally scheduled for May 17, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market will be the…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
FC Nantes and Toulouse FC will meet on 17 May 2026 in a Ligue 1 fixture, with settlement determined by the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The current 7% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the combined likelihood of all explicitly listed scorelines, with any result outside those outcomes resolving to "Any Other Score." This pricing suggests traders view the most common exact scores as individually unlikely events, which aligns with how exact-score markets typically function—even favoured outcomes rarely exceed 10–15% probability when outcomes are granularly specified.
Historical Ligue 1 data shows that exact scores cluster around narrow ranges: 1–0, 1–1, 2–1 and 2–0 results account for roughly 40–45% of all matches, whilst any single exact scoreline rarely exceeds 8–10% probability in well-matched fixtures. Nantes and Toulouse are mid-table sides with comparable recent form; neither has demonstrated the attacking dominance or defensive solidity that would skew probabilities toward high-scoring or low-scoring outcomes. The 7% reading suggests the market is pricing in baseline expectations for a competitive Ligue 1 encounter without significant injury news or tactical anomalies.
Traders should monitor team news in the weeks before the fixture, particularly injury updates to key forwards or defensive players, which could shift the distribution toward higher or lower-scoring outcomes. Fixture congestion late in the season may also affect squad rotation decisions. Current Ligue 1 standings and recent head-to-head records between the clubs will clarify whether either side enters as a clear favourite, potentially concentrating probability mass on specific scorelines.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ligue1.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $29K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ligue1.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: