Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 23 at 7:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| O/U 1.5 | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| Panama (-1.5) | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Croatia (-1.5) | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Panama (-2.5) | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 93% YES | 7% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
Panama and Croatia will meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture on 23 June 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 7:00 PM ET. The market is pricing the likelihood that additional betting markets for this specific match will be created on Polymarket before the settlement window closes. Currently, the order book reflects a 72% implied probability of YES, indicating strong trader conviction that supplementary markets—such as exact scorelines, player performance props, or corner totals—will materialise alongside the primary match outcome market.
Historical precedent suggests major World Cup fixtures attract layered market creation. During the 2022 tournament, Polymarket expanded its coverage of high-profile matches with dozens of derivative markets within hours of the primary market launch. Panama–Croatia, whilst not a headline fixture, falls within the tournament's group stage where liquidity tends to concentrate. The current 72% probability reflects confidence in Polymarket's operational capacity and commercial incentive to build out markets for all group-stage matches, though lower-profile pairings sometimes receive sparser coverage than knockout-stage contests.
Traders should monitor FIFA's official fixture confirmation and any schedule adjustments in the coming weeks. Polymarket's market creation typically follows the tournament calendar closely, with new markets launching 48–72 hours before matches. The settlement window extends to 23 June at 23:00 UTC, providing a narrow window for additional markets to appear. Any unexpected scheduling changes or broadcaster restrictions could affect the likelihood of supplementary market deployment.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Panama vs. Croatia - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$492 in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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