Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 22 at 8:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Senegal (-1.5) | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 75% YES | 26% NO |
| Norway (-1.5) | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Both Teams to Score | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| Norway (-2.5) | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Senegal (-2.5) | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 93% YES | 8% NO |
Norway and Senegal are scheduled to contest a FIFA World Cup match on 22 June at 8:00 PM ET. The market in question concerns whether additional betting markets for this fixture will be created on Polymarket before the settlement window closes on 23 June. Currently, the order book is pricing this outcome at 10% implied probability, suggesting traders assess it as unlikely that supplementary markets will materialise around this particular match.
Historical precedent indicates that Polymarket typically creates multiple derivative markets for major World Cup fixtures, particularly those involving established footballing nations or high-profile matchups. Norway's absence from recent World Cup tournaments (they failed to qualify for 2022 in Qatar) and Senegal's status as an African representative create a less commercially prominent pairing compared to encounters between traditional powerhouses. The current 10% probability reflects this positioning: traders are pricing in that the match may receive standard market coverage only, without the proliferation of secondary markets seen for headline fixtures.
The key catalyst will be Polymarket's own market-creation decisions in the days immediately preceding the match. Traders should monitor whether the platform announces additional markets for this fixture or related betting propositions. Fixture confirmation, team news, and any injury announcements to key players could influence whether market creators judge the match sufficiently liquid or interesting to warrant expanded coverage. The tight settlement window—closing just hours after the match concludes—means any new markets would need to be launched well before kick-off.
Norway elects its legislature on a national level. The parliament, the Storting, has 169 members elected for a four-year term by a form of proportional representation in multi-seat constituencies.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Norway vs. Senegal - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$186 in lifetime turnover and $36K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $19 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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