Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 13 at 9:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Haiti (-1.5) | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Scotland (-1.5) | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Haiti (-2.5) | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Scotland (-2.5) | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 92% YES | 9% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 74% YES | 27% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 29% YES | 71% NO |
Haiti and Scotland are scheduled to meet in a FIFA World Cup qualifier on 13 June 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 4% implied probability, reflecting strong market consensus that Haiti will not advance further in the tournament structure or that this particular matchup will not occur as settled.
Historical context for Caribbean nations in World Cup qualification shows limited progression beyond group stages. Haiti qualified for the 1974 World Cup but has not returned since, whilst Scotland has qualified five times but last appeared in 1998. The 4% probability aligns with Haiti's historical difficulty in competitive FIFA tournaments against European opposition. Scotland's recent Nations League and qualification campaign performance, combined with their established infrastructure and player development pathways, positions them as clear favourites in any direct comparison. Markets typically price smaller nations' advancement chances conservatively unless recent form or injury news shifts expectations materially.
Traders should monitor official FIFA fixture confirmations and any squad announcements closer to June 2026, particularly regarding player availability and injury status for both nations. Scottish domestic league performance through early 2026 and Haiti's CONCACAF qualification results will provide concrete form data. Any significant managerial changes or unexpected competitive results in the months preceding the tournament could shift the probability, though the current 4% reflects the substantial gap in recent competitive history and established playing strength between the two sides.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Haiti vs. Scotland - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $124K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $116 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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