Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Cabo Verde, scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Spain vs. Cabo Verde match originally scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Spain will face Cabo Verde in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match on 15 June 2026. The market prices an exact final score at 5% implied probability, reflecting the current order book on Polymarket. This represents a wager on one specific scoreline from the ninety-minute regulation result, excluding extra time and penalty outcomes. Settlement occurs at 16:00 UTC on the scheduled match date, with any unmatched scoreline resolving to "Any Other Score."
Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in football carry inherently low probabilities for any single outcome due to the wide distribution of possible results. Spain's recent tournament performances—reaching the Euro 2024 semi-finals and maintaining a strong qualifying record—position them as heavy favourites against Cabo Verde, a nation ranked 205th by FIFA. The 5% probability likely reflects the combined odds of multiple specific scorelines that traders consider plausible, rather than a single dominant prediction. Comparable exact-score markets in major tournaments typically see probabilities between 3% and 8% for favoured teams' most likely results.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury reports as the June fixture approaches. Spain's squad depth and recent form will influence expected goal differentials, whilst Cabo Verde's preparation and any late personnel changes could affect the probability distribution across scorelines. The match timing at 12:00 PM ET may also influence team selection strategies depending on group-stage circumstances closer to the tournament date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Spain vs. Cabo Verde - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3 in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: