Trade the outcome below — no house edge, instant USDC settlement on Polygon
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 23 at 4:00 PM ET.
Sports outcome markets settle within hours of game-end via the UMA optimistic oracle, with the YES/NO line refreshing in real time on every meaningful in-game event. Current odds favour the NO side at 9%, making this a high-confidence market with 27 days to resolution — long enough that information asymmetry can still move the line meaningfully, backed by $41K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ghana (-2.5) | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 81% YES | 20% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| England (-1.5) | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| England (-2.5) | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 89% YES | 11% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
England and Ghana are scheduled to meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture on 23 June 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 9% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting traders assess this as a low-likelihood event relative to baseline expectations for the match.
Historical precedent offers context for evaluating this probability. England and Ghana have met twice in competitive fixtures: a 2-0 England victory in the 2014 World Cup group stage and a 1-0 England win in the 2022 World Cup group stage. Across these encounters, England has demonstrated consistent superiority in direct competition. Ghana's World Cup record shows limited success against top-tier European opposition, with the side having progressed from group stages only once (2010). The current 9% probability aligns with Ghana's historical underdog status in such matchups, though the four-year gap since their last meeting and squad composition changes warrant consideration.
Key catalysts for traders include official squad announcements from both the Football Association and Ghana Football Association, expected in the months preceding the tournament. Injury updates to key players—particularly England's attacking contingent—could shift market sentiment materially. Fixture scheduling details and group composition confirmation remain pending. Recent form in qualifying rounds and friendly matches closer to June 2026 will provide updated information on both sides' competitive state, potentially triggering significant repricing on the order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 23 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Sports markets on PolyGram historically have the fastest payout cycle — over 94% clear within four hours of game-end, with the remainder gated by overtime, weather, or referee review. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "England vs. Ghana - More Markets", sports markets tend to see the tightest 1-2¢ spreads in the final hour before tip-off, widening rapidly the moment of any in-game news.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($41K of resting liquidity), a $200 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
Other active prediction markets in the same category on PolyGram, ranked by trading volume:
The mechanics for trading "England vs. Ghana - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $41K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "England vs. Ghana - More Markets", the considerations above apply directly — Sports outcome contracts are sensitive to single-event variance — a coin-flip game, a referee call, or an injured player can move the line 10-30¢ in seconds. Position sizing should reflect that variance rather than the expected value alone.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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