Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Friday, June 5, 2026 between Thailand and Kuwait.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Thailand | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| Draw (Thailand vs. Kuwait) | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Kuwait | 19% YES | 82% NO |
Thailand and Kuwait are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on Friday, 5 June 2026. The match represents a low-stakes fixture in the international calendar, typically used by national teams for preparation ahead of qualifying campaigns or continental tournaments. The current order book on Polymarket prices Thailand at 57% implied probability of victory, reflecting modest confidence in the home side's advantage.
Historical matchups between these nations show Thailand holding a marginal edge in direct encounters, though both teams operate at similar competitive levels within Asian football. Thailand ranks approximately 120th in the FIFA world rankings, whilst Kuwait sits around 140th. Friendlies between sides of comparable strength typically settle near even odds; the 57% probability suggests the market is pricing in Thailand's home advantage at the Suphachalasai Stadium in Bangkok, a factor worth approximately 7–10 percentage points in similar fixtures. Recent form matters considerably—Thailand's domestic league season will conclude shortly before the match, potentially affecting squad availability and match sharpness.
Traders should monitor team news releases and squad announcements in the weeks preceding the fixture, as injuries or late withdrawals could shift the probability materially. The settlement window closes at 12:30 UTC on match day, allowing minimal time for late-breaking information. Fixture confirmations and venue changes, though unlikely at this stage, would constitute meaningful catalysts. Current liquidity on the order book will determine execution costs for position adjustments as the match approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Thailand vs. Kuwait" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$25 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $22 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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