Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between Portugal and Nigeria, scheduled for June 10, 2026 at 3:45 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Portugal vs. Nigeria match originally scheduled for June 10, 2026 at 3:45 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-1 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-3 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-2 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
Portugal and Nigeria will contest a FIFA International Friendly on 10 June 2026 at 3:45 PM ET. The market resolves on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The 11% implied probability reflects the current order book on Polymarket, where traders are pricing the likelihood of a specific exact scoreline materialising.
Exact-score markets in international friendlies typically carry low probabilities for any single outcome because football matches distribute results across numerous possible scorelines. Historical data from comparable friendlies shows that even heavily favoured teams rarely exceed 40–50% combined probability across their top three most likely scorelines. Portugal, ranked 8th globally, would be expected to dominate possession and chances against Nigeria (ranked 41st), yet friendlies introduce unpredictability: squad rotation, experimental formations, and reduced intensity all increase variance. The 11% probability suggests traders view this particular scoreline as moderately plausible relative to alternatives, though still a minority outcome.
Key variables affecting settlement include team selection announcements in the weeks before the match, injury updates to key players, and any fixture rescheduling. Portugal's preparation for major tournaments and Nigeria's squad availability will shape tactical approach and likely goal output. Weather conditions at the venue and referee assignments, whilst typically minor factors, can influence match flow. Traders should monitor official team news from the Portuguese Football Federation and Nigeria Football Federation as the match date approaches, as friendly lineups often differ substantially from competitive fixtures.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Portugal vs. Nigeria - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$77 in lifetime turnover and $74 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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