Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Monday, June 8, 2026 between Netherlands and Uzbekistan.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Netherlands | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Draw (Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Uzbekistan | 45% YES | 55% NO |
The Netherlands will face Uzbekistan in a FIFA International Friendly on Monday, 8 June 2026. The match forms part of the fixture calendar between the two nations and will settle based on the result at full-time. Polymarket's order book currently prices the Netherlands victory at 49% implied probability, reflecting genuine uncertainty among traders despite the Netherlands' higher FIFA ranking and European pedigree.
Historically, friendlies between sides of markedly different competitive levels—the Netherlands ranked around 8th globally versus Uzbekistan typically outside the top 50—have produced outcomes skewed towards the higher-ranked team, though not uniformly. The 49% probability suggests traders are pricing in either material doubt about Dutch squad strength, possible squad rotation given the 2026 World Cup cycle, or genuine confidence in Uzbekistan's recent form improvements. Recent friendlies involving top-10 European sides have shown increasing volatility, particularly when played in neutral venues or during unconventional windows.
Key variables for traders include squad announcements from the Dutch Football Association and Uzbekistan's Football Federation, fixture congestion in the weeks prior, and any late withdrawals from either side. The settlement window closes at 18:45 UTC on match day, allowing only post-match confirmation. Monitor official team news releases and fixture schedules through early June, as friendly lineups often feature experimental selections that can shift match dynamics materially from pre-match expectations.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $720 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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