Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Saturday, June 6, 2026 between Curaçao and Aruba.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Curaçao | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| Draw (Curaçao vs. Aruba) | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Aruba | 24% YES | 76% NO |
Curaçao and Aruba, both Caribbean island nations with limited FIFA competitive history, are scheduled to face each other in an international friendly on 6 June 2026. The match sits outside major tournament windows, making it a lower-profile fixture in the international calendar. Current order book activity on Polymarket prices a Curaçao victory at 52 per cent implied probability, reflecting modest confidence in the home side's advantage or perceived quality differential.
Historical matchups between these neighbours are sparse, limiting direct precedent for traders. Both nations rank outside the world's top 100 in FIFA standings, with Curaçao typically holding a marginal edge in recent competitive records. The 52 per cent probability suggests the market views this as a coin-flip contest with slight Curaçao lean, consistent with their marginally stronger recent form and home-ground positioning. Comparable friendlies between small Caribbean federations show high volatility in outcomes, making pre-match squad announcements and injury updates material signals.
Key catalysts through to settlement include official squad lists from both federations, typically released 7–10 days before the fixture, and any late withdrawals from European-based players. Weather conditions on match day—tropical storms are not uncommon in June—could influence play style and execution. Polymarket's order book will likely tighten as the fixture approaches and more information enters the market, particularly if either nation announces significant absences or tactical shifts ahead of the friendly.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Curaçao vs. Aruba" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$16K in lifetime turnover and $630 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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