Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 6 at 1:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Gibraltar (-1.5) | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Cayman Islands (-1.5) | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Gibraltar (-2.5) | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| Cayman Islands (-2.5) | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 62% YES | 38% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
Gibraltar and Cayman Islands are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 6 June 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 41% implied probability for "more markets" to be created around this fixture, suggesting traders are pricing in a moderate but uncertain likelihood that additional betting markets will materialise beyond those already listed.
International friendlies between lower-ranked nations typically generate limited market depth on prediction platforms. Gibraltar and Cayman Islands, both outside the top 100 FIFA rankings, have historically attracted sparse trading activity and minimal ancillary market creation. Comparable fixtures involving Caribbean and European micro-nations show that additional markets—such as total goals, first goalscorer, or half-time results—materialise only when sufficient liquidity or operator interest justifies the infrastructure cost. The 41% probability suggests traders view this match as below the threshold for standard market expansion.
Catalysts affecting market creation include fixture confirmation closer to June, squad announcements, and whether either nation qualifies for competitive tournaments that might elevate their profile. Polymarket's order book formation reflects real-time assessment of operator incentives: if the match gains media attention or if either team's participation becomes newsworthy, additional markets become more likely. Conversely, fixture postponements or cancellations—not uncommon in international friendlies—would eliminate the underlying event entirely, collapsing demand for supplementary markets.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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