Trade: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Friday, May 29, 2026 between Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $960
- Total Volume
- $1
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $1
Market outcomes
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Draw (Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia) | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| North Macedonia | 46% YES | 55% NO |
Market context
Bosnia and Herzegovina will face North Macedonia in a FIFA International Friendly on Friday, 29 May 2026. The match forms part of the standard fixture calendar ahead of the 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign. Current pricing on Polymarket's order book reflects a 45% implied probability for a Bosnia and Herzegovina victory, with the remaining probability distributed across draws and North Macedonia wins. This probability has emerged from live trading activity and represents the marginal price at which liquidity providers are willing to take positions.
Historically, Bosnia and Herzegovina holds a significant advantage in direct matchups and overall competitive strength. The nations have met twice in recent competitive fixtures, with Bosnia winning both encounters. Bosnia ranks substantially higher in FIFA standings and possesses greater depth in player quality across most positions. North Macedonia, whilst competitive at regional level, has struggled in qualification campaigns and friendlies against stronger opposition. These precedents suggest the current 45% probability for Bosnia may undervalue their structural advantages, though friendly matches introduce volatility absent from competitive play.
Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations in the weeks preceding the fixture, particularly injury status of key players. Friendly matches often see experimental lineups or rotation, which can materially affect expected performance. Recent form in domestic leagues and any late withdrawals will influence betting patterns closer to kickoff. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC on match day, allowing traders to adjust positions based on confirmed team sheets released typically 24 hours before the fixture.
Wikipedia Context
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Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina, often referred to as Bosnia-Herzegovina or simply Bosnia, is a country in Southeast Europe. Situated on the Balkan Peninsula, it borders Serbia to the east, Montenegro to the southeast, and Croatia to the north and southwest, with a 20-kilometre-long (12-mile) coast on the Adriatic Sea in the south. Bosnia has a moderate continental c
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Bosnia-Hercegovina Commemorative Medal
The Bosnia-Hercegovina Commemorative Medal was founded on 30 August 1909, to commemorate the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina into the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy in 1908. Bosnia and Herzegovina itself had been occupied by the dual monarchy of Austria-Hungary since 1878. Legally, however, it remained part of the Ottoman Empire until 1908, when it was annex
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Bosnia and Herzegovina national football team
The Bosnia and Herzegovina national football team represents Bosnia and Herzegovina in men's international football competitions, and is governed by the Football Association of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Until 1992, Bosnian footballers played for Yugoslavia.
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Croats of Bosnia and HerzegovinaThe Croats of Bosnia and Herzegovina, often referred to as Bosnian Croats or Herzegovinian Croats, are native to Bosnia and Herzegovina and constitute the third most populous ethnic group, after Bosniaks and Serbs. They are one of the three constitutive nations of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Most Croats identify themselves as Catholics and speak Croatian languag
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1 in lifetime turnover and $960 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 29 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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