Trade the outcome below — no house edge, instant USDC settlement on Polygon
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 5 at 12:00 PM ET.
Sports outcome markets settle within hours of game-end via the UMA optimistic oracle, with the YES/NO line refreshing in real time on every meaningful in-game event. Current odds favour the NO side at 25%, making this a directional market with 3 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $838 of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Belarus (-1.5) | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Syria (-1.5) | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Belarus (-2.5) | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Syria (-2.5) | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 89% YES | 11% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 73% YES | 28% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
Belarus and Syria are scheduled to contest a FIFA International Friendly on 5 June 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The market currently prices additional betting markets on this fixture at 25% implied probability, reflecting moderate conviction that supplementary markets beyond the standard match outcome will be offered by settlement. Polymarket's order book shows this probability formed through modest trading activity, with the spread between bid and ask suggesting limited volume has moved the needle thus far.
Historical precedent for friendly matches between lower-ranked nations indicates variable market depth. FIFA friendlies involving teams outside the top 50 rankings frequently attract minimal secondary market creation, particularly when fixtures occur outside major tournament windows. Belarus (ranked approximately 87th) and Syria (ranked outside the top 100) represent a pairing unlikely to generate substantial broadcast or commercial interest in developed markets. Previous comparable friendlies have seen limited derivative markets, though UEFA and confederation-sanctioned fixtures occasionally warrant expanded betting offerings depending on bookmaker appetite.
Traders should monitor FIFA's official fixture confirmation and any late scheduling changes, which could affect bookmaker commitment to secondary markets. Proximity to Euro 2024 qualifying cycles or other confederation tournaments may influence whether operators view this fixture as worth the operational cost of additional markets. Announcements from major sportsbooks regarding their June 2026 friendly coverage will provide directional signals. The settlement window closing 5 June at 16:00 UTC leaves minimal post-match window for new market creation, making pre-match operator decisions the critical variable.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 5 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.fifa.com), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Sports markets on PolyGram historically have the fastest payout cycle — over 94% clear within four hours of game-end, with the remainder gated by overtime, weather, or referee review. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Belarus vs. Syria - More Markets", sports markets tend to see the tightest 1-2¢ spreads in the final hour before tip-off, widening rapidly the moment of any in-game news.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($838 of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
Other active prediction markets in the same category on PolyGram, ranked by trading volume:
The mechanics for trading "Belarus vs. Syria - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$30 in lifetime turnover and $838 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Belarus vs. Syria - More Markets", the considerations above apply directly — Sports outcome contracts are sensitive to single-event variance — a coin-flip game, a referee call, or an injured player can move the line 10-30¢ in seconds. Position sizing should reflect that variance rather than the expected value alone.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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