Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 11 at 12:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Austria (-1.5) | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Guatemala (-1.5) | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Austria (-2.5) | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Guatemala (-2.5) | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Austria and Guatemala are scheduled to meet in an international friendly fixture on 11 June 2026 at 12:00 AM ET. The match represents a rare competitive encounter between the two nations, with limited recent head-to-head history to establish clear precedent. Austria, ranked within Europe's mid-tier sides, typically fields a competitive squad in friendlies ahead of major tournaments or qualification windows. Guatemala, competing at a lower FIFA ranking, has historically struggled in matches against European opposition, though friendlies can produce unpredictable results when preparation levels and squad rotation differ significantly between opponents.
The current 47% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty around match outcome and availability of team information. Traders should monitor official squad announcements from both federations in the days preceding the fixture, as late withdrawals or experimental lineups can shift competitive balance substantially. The timing—a June international window—typically sees European clubs release players for national duty, whilst Central American sides may field squads with varying club-level experience. Recent UEFA and CONCACAF fixture calendars suggest Austria may be using this friendly for preparation ahead of qualification or tournament play, potentially affecting tactical approach and player selection intensity.
The settlement window closes 11 June at 04:00 UTC, allowing roughly twelve hours post-match for official confirmation. Traders should expect limited liquidity adjustments once lineups are confirmed, as the market will price in concrete information about squad strength and tactical setup closer to kickoff.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Austria vs. Guatemala - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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