Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 6 at 2:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Albania (-1.5) | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| Luxembourg (-1.5) | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Albania (-2.5) | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Luxembourg (-2.5) | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 64% YES | 37% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
Albania and Luxembourg will meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 6 June 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. The market is pricing the proposition at 42% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting current trader positioning on whether additional markets will be offered for this fixture. The probability formation reflects both the liquidity depth available and the recent activity across related sports betting markets, where secondary-market creation for friendlies has become increasingly common as the 2026 World Cup cycle approaches.
Historical precedent suggests friendly matches between lower-ranked nations attract modest but consistent secondary-market interest. Albania (currently ranked around 66th) and Luxembourg (around 96th) represent a pairing unlikely to generate the volume seen for major-nation fixtures, yet both countries' participation in competitive qualifying rounds means their friendlies often receive structured betting coverage. Comparable fixtures in the 2022 cycle saw additional markets materialise within 48 hours of initial listing when trader demand warranted it, though not universally.
Key catalysts include official confirmation of team sheets and squad announcements, typically released 3–5 days before kick-off, which often trigger secondary-market expansion. UEFA and national federation communications regarding fixture scheduling and broadcast arrangements will signal commercial interest levels. Weather conditions and injury updates to key players could shift trader expectations about match competitiveness and thus market proliferation. The settlement window closing on 6 June at 18:00 UTC provides a tight window for market creation and resolution.
The Albanian diaspora are the ethnic Albanians and their descendants living outside of Albania, Kosovo, southeastern Montenegro, western North Macedonia, southeastern Serbia, northwestern Greece and Southern Italy.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Albania vs. Luxembourg - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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