Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the La Liga 2 game, scheduled for May 15 at 2:30 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CD Castellón (-1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cádiz CF (-1.5) | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| CD Castellón (-2.5) | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Cádiz CF (-2.5) | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 82% YES | 18% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 85% YES | 16% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 66% YES | 35% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
CD Castellón and Cádiz CF will meet in La Liga 2 on 15 May at 14:30 ET, with settlement tied to the final whistle. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50% implied probability, suggesting traders view the outcome as a genuine toss-up given both clubs' recent form and positioning within the division's standings at that stage of the season.
La Liga 2 matches involving mid-table or promotion-contention sides typically trade near even odds when neither team holds a decisive advantage in goal differential or recent results. Historical precedent shows that when both sides carry similar win rates over their preceding five matches, probabilities cluster around 45–55%, particularly if one team plays at home and the other away. The current 50-50 split reflects this equilibrium; any shift would likely follow concrete team news—injuries to key players, managerial changes, or unexpected results in the weeks preceding the fixture.
Traders should monitor official La Liga 2 injury bulletins and squad announcements in the fortnight before settlement. Fixture congestion, European competition involvement (if applicable), or mid-season managerial changes at either club could alter the order book materially. Additionally, final-day promotion or relegation scenarios sometimes influence team motivation, though at the 15 May date, most playoff positions will already be determined. Current liquidity and order depth will signal whether the 50% mark reflects genuine consensus or thin positioning.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliga.com/en-GB/laliga-hypermotion. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CD Castellón vs. Cádiz CF - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$131 in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $131 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliga.com/en-GB/laliga-hypermotion. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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