Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Monday, May 11, 2026 between Tottenham Hotspur FC and Leeds United FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC) | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Tottenham Hotspur FC | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| Leeds United FC | 23% YES | 78% NO |
Tottenham Hotspur will host Leeds United at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Monday, 11 May 2026 in a Premier League fixture. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Tottenham victory at 24% implied probability, reflecting substantial backing for either a Leeds win or a draw. Settlement occurs at 19:00 UTC on the match date, capturing the full 90-minute result plus injury time.
Historical context suggests this probability warrants scrutiny given Tottenham's typical home advantage. In recent seasons, Spurs have won roughly 50–55% of home Premier League matches, whilst Leeds—as a Championship-bound or mid-table side depending on 2025–26 outcomes—would face structural disadvantages in away fixtures against established top-six sides. The 24% YES figure implies either significant injury concerns at Tottenham, exceptional Leeds form, or substantial uncertainty about squad composition by May 2026. Comparable fixtures between these clubs historically favour the home side more decisively than current pricing suggests.
Traders should monitor team news through April and early May, particularly injury updates to Tottenham's attacking personnel and Leeds' defensive stability. Managerial changes, recent form trajectories, and any late fixture congestion affecting either side will influence the order book closer to kick-off. Weather conditions on the day and team selection announcements typically drive late volatility. The Monday evening slot may also affect squad availability if either club is involved in European competition or faces a fixture backlog.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.premierleague.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$188K in lifetime turnover and $2.7M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $99K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.premierleague.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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