Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between Nottingham Forest FC and Newcastle United FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Nottingham Forest FC | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Draw (Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC) | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Newcastle United FC | 40% YES | 61% NO |
Nottingham Forest will host Newcastle United at the City Ground on Sunday, 10 May 2026 in a Premier League fixture. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Newcastle victory at 35 per cent implied probability, reflecting the away side's historical edge in this matchup and their league position relative to Forest's recent form. Settlement occurs at 13:00 UTC on the scheduled match date.
Newcastle have won 12 of their last 20 meetings with Forest across all competitions, establishing a consistent advantage that underpins the modest odds for an away win. Forest's home record this season has been mixed; they have struggled to convert possession into points against stronger sides, whilst Newcastle's away form has improved markedly since January 2026. The 35 per cent probability suggests the market views this as a competitive fixture where Forest's home advantage is offset by Newcastle's superior squad depth and recent trajectory.
Key variables for traders include team news releases in the week before the match—injuries to either side's midfield or defensive line could shift the probability materially. Newcastle's European commitments earlier in May may affect squad rotation decisions, whilst Forest's position in the league table by that point will determine their motivation. Weather conditions at the City Ground and any late managerial changes would also influence the order book. Monitor official Premier League fixture confirmations and both clubs' injury bulletins from early May onwards.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.premierleague.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$234K in lifetime turnover and $2.8M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $196K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.premierleague.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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