Trade: Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC - More Markets
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Premier League game, scheduled for May 24 at 11:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $4K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Manchester City FC (-1.5) | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| Aston Villa FC (-1.5) | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| Manchester City FC (-2.5) | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| Aston Villa FC (-2.5) | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 71% YES | 30% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 65% YES | 35% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
Market context
Manchester City and Aston Villa will meet in a Premier League fixture on 24 May 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. The settlement window for this market closes at 15:00 UTC the same day, aligning with the final whistle. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing the YES outcome at 40%, reflecting market participants' assessment of the specific conditions attached to this fixture—likely a particular result, player performance metric, or team statistic rather than a simple match winner.
Historical precedent suggests that late-season Premier League encounters between these sides carry significant variance depending on whether either club has secured their seasonal objectives. City's dominance in recent campaigns means May fixtures often feature rotated lineups or conservative tactics, whilst Villa's recent resurgence has made them competitive opponents. When comparing similar mid-to-late season clashes, the 40% probability sits in the range typical for outcomes with genuine two-way uncertainty—neither heavily favoured nor distant outsiders.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official squad announcements in the days preceding the match, particularly regarding injury status and fixture congestion from European competitions. The timing of this fixture at the season's close means both clubs' remaining objectives—European qualification, domestic cup finals, or already-secured positions—will directly influence selection and intensity. Polymarket's order book depth will likely tighten as match day approaches, with significant moves possible if either side announces unexpected absences or tactical shifts.
Wikipedia Context
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Manchester City F.C.Manchester City Football Club, commonly referred to as Man City, is a professional football club based in Manchester, England, that competes in the Premier League, the top flight of English football. Founded in 1880 as St. Mark's, they became Ardwick Association Football Club in 1887 and Manchester City in 1894. The club's home ground is the City of Manchest
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Manchester City W.F.C.
Manchester City Women's Football Club is an English women's football club based in Manchester who play in the Women's Super League. It is affiliated with Manchester City which plays in the Premier League.
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Manchester City F.C. Under-21s and Academy
Manchester City is represented at Reserve level for football by the Elite Development Squad, also referred to as just the Elite Squad, or EDS, a predominantly Under-23 side that replaced the previous Reserve team in a move to focus on youth development post-academy. The club is represented at the Under-18 level by the Manchester City Academy team.
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Manchester City CouncilManchester City Council is the local authority for the city of Manchester in Greater Manchester, England. Manchester has had an elected local authority since 1838, which has been reformed several times. Since 1974 the council has been a metropolitan borough council. It provides the majority of local government services in the city. The council has been a mem
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.premierleague.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.premierleague.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC - More Markets"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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